Finally just got this working. Huge thanks to RhythmScript. There’s an additional post by them here that I also used:
Here’s a super simple setup that worked for me in Unreal 5.3, projecting onto unlit materials:
You have to use the 1x1x1_Box_Pivot_-XYZ
static mesh for this, and then you freely scale it to set your bounds. You can find it in .../Engine/Content/Functions/Engine_MaterialFunctions02/SupportFiles/1x1x1_Box_Pivot_-XYZ.uasset
As far as I can tell, this is the only way to project decals onto Unlit materials currently (for projected drop shadows and stuff).