It is not so much “will it” as “should it.” I do not think that it should reach 10mil and I think it would be unhealthy for the industry if it does.
I have no problem with the idea that there are games large publishers are on the fence about funding and utilizing kickstarter as a way to proof concept. It somewhat acts as a preorder and confers some benefits. But as with all possibilities for monetization the AAA industry is entirely capable of taking this idea and running with it to its worst end. If Shenmu does too well we’ll see more games end up this yet also chalk full of the other usual gated content and mountains of DLC that they already enjoy large profits from.
So really here is to Shenmu not meeting all of its goals.