Yeah the 10x (1000% increase) in speed is at specific “deep learning” type stuff which I barely understand. The 30%-50% increase is my personal guess based on stuff I detailed above… most notably going from 28nm to 16nm along with Nvidia’s overall architechural change track record (post-Fermi). There’s also the “CUDA Cores” kind of stuff where if you’re talking the Pascal Titan Y having 4000 CUDA cores, their new 3072-bit (that’s not a typo, AMD is shipping 4096-bit cards now) HBM2 memory implementation… certainly for gaming there should be big increases.
There’s also all the GPU compute stuff which will impact developers and media producers. Encoding, rendering, is all being revolutionised by GPU compute. 's a render on my GTX 660M Kepler from Daz3D with Nvidia Iray. For argument’s sake I set the time limit to 5 minutes, 1920x1080 (only post process was grey background and increase in brightness (curves):
is of course nothing compared to the stuff coming out of people with Octane and say, two Titan X, let alone a GPU cloud rendering cluster (it’s considered “realtime” in the latter).
Besides hardware, as mentioned there’s , GameWorks VR and so on, so yes I am very optimistic about Nvidia Pascal hardware ~and related software~. Let’s take Lightmass for example. Sure, the current quality when you crank up the settings is phenomenal. But if you took Nvidia IRay or VXGI or OpenCL in general and made a Lightmass-type baking system, you could get much faster baking.
To sum up anything less than a 30% increase of Titan Y over Titan X in gaming (UE4, 4K, VR, etc) and mainstream GPU rendering (IRay, Octane) would be an Nvidia misstep in my opinion.
Edit: On the AMD side the Dual-Fiji should be out soon and that should do 4K VR 90FPS etc. Will have to be liquid-cooled though, I think: ://wccftech/amd-dual-gpu-fiji-gemini-spotted-shipping-manifest-codenamed-radeon-r9-gemini/