Considering how hard Nvidia (and now Intel) are pushing real-time path-tracing, I don’t think it’ll be too long at all, for PCs at least. Consoles are a mystery, but a handful of breakthroughs can change the game (EG Nanite).
In regards to your frustration with reflections, I agree that lumen scene reflections can look messy and somewhat illusion-breaking, but I’m not sure standalone RT is actually better in this case, and here’s what makes me think that:
UE Content Examples, 5.3 preview. Lumen GI and reflections with hit lighting (two bounces), everything maxed out. Note the reflection of the white wall on the black floor, and the white wall is indirectly lit.
Same scene, identical settings, minus standalone RT reflections enabled, 2SPP, two bounces, but with a roughness cutoff of 1 (so almost GI at this point).
Note how strangely blue the standalone RT reflections are. They’re almost acting like the wall doesn’t exist from a lighting perspective, and the metal bar is very blue even though it has no direct view of the sky.
If you go into the reflections only viewmode, it’s pretty easy to see why (sidenote: lumen only traces multiple bounces of reflections for surfaces that are smooth enough; it otherwise uses the lumen scene). Even though the lighting is blotchy, the lumen scene is accurately capturing the warm lighting bouncing around the scene, as well as the area opposite the wall. Even though it’s approximate, the lighting is roughly matching the GI.
Now, this is the reflections-only view with standalone RT reflections. Everything is really, really blue, because standalone RT actually has no idea the GI even exists- it just has direct lighting information, and the skylight. So any area in shadow just has flat ambient lighting, like the roof above the blue display that’s just flat grey.
The point of me saying all of this isn’t to criticize anyone who prefers standalone RT over lumen reflections- there are totally legitimate reasons to like the ‘cleaner’ RT reflections over the messier surface cache. But standalone RT doesn’t possess features that lumen does not- the cleaner look comes from a lack of features. And I think it’s good to have this knowledge about the differences in the open so devs and artists can make informed decisions.