Or even a decent job.
I released 4 games on my own. Mobile, windows, linux. I know how to work with steam sdk and google play, i have experience in AR. I can do some photogrammetry, some 3d modelling, some PR skills, make and launch sites, programming, translating. I am not a master at anything, but my skills are enough just to publish my small projects on my own. I think I can’t really take any other position than a game designer as mainly what I do is design games, and my other part of my brain finds a solution on how to implement this - do it myself, find a free blueprint online, download what I need from marketplace, or hire someone. I am not like a tech one-sided guy. I am more of a practical and functional dude, the manager so I guess I won’t ever get a job at some studio, I can only form my own and maybe one day if I succeed I will have a big company.
What type of dude are you? Tho I improve my skills at everything, from programming to modelling, tho I see 3d modelling vanish soon as a profession
Or even a decent job.
I have been hearing that ever since the emergence of 3d scanners, photogrammetry software and other related technologies. I’m sure that like the PC, the need for 3d artists will still be with us long after you retired.
As a 3d modeller you may reject the fact that your profession is useless, but let’s look at facts:
1.Everyday the base of free and paid models is increasing. Means that no one is going to hire a 3d modeller for general, generic assets and level props. Only for very unique and complex that can’t be bought. 3d modelling as a profession for general audience will fade and it’s only a matter of time. The only arguable thing is how soon is it going to happen. Sure you can find a loh who can’t google model shops, but that will be your only audience. In the next 5 years profession will only be available to super-pros and their big orders.
I bet 3D modelling will face a complete destruction in the next 10 years. Right now there are nearly millions of models on the web, and in the latest years among of reproduces and posted models in the web is about 50-60 percent than in it was in previous years all combined. Now thanks to the photogrammetry and photoscanners everyone can produce quality models in hours. I know you are going to butthurt as this means you are not needed anymore but this is truth, you can deny acknowledging it if you please, but everyone can check that, the proof is freely available. So, photogrammetry eliminates hiring you for creating unique models and human characters.
Artificial neural networks. Expect them to become much smarter and process photogrammetric and scanning data more accurate and fast.
Costs of cameras, computer power and scanners. All of this will become much better and cheaper in the next 10 years.
Not a professional 3d modeller. Although been playing with 3ds max and maya since 2005-2006.
So, someone is keeping creating new ones. Who’s going to create a cartoonish 3d model of a 2050’s computer frame or rocket in the future? Millions of new ideas, characters, objects and such are created every single year. Who’s going to model those things that only exists in people’s mind?
Also, everyday the base of computing code is increasing. Does that mean that soon programmers will only be needed for very special and unique cases?
How long have they been around? Besides, even with those, you still need people to tweak the final result.
Then why learning game dev in the first place. After all, it’s just a question of time before an AI is able to create a game with a click of a button. No need for humans, modelers, programmers, artists, …
Sorry, but no. Unless you can present clear data that shows a downward trend on modelling, then I will remain skeptics about every prediction.
Yes. I was thinking about vanishing of programmers long before I started to think about 3d modellers. But this is not going to happen in the next 50 years. After that probably big companies will do any order for cheap with their neural networks in minutes, thus regular programmers will not be ever hired due to being expensive and slow.
Programmers will only exist only as researchers. But. Comparing something like 3d modelling, 2d painting to coding is wrong. They are just simple visual data. Admit it. The time of 3d modellers is almost gone and 3d modelling wasn’t a real profession, it’s just a profession of a short epoch that makes virtual goods. Just like the time of mining bitcoins. It’s also available only to big companies and everyday there is lower and lower amount of available jobs. Someone posted a model = -1 job for you. Market of virtual goods is different to the market of physical ones. it’s a completely different universe.
“How long have they been around? Besides, even with those, you still need people to tweak the final result.”
The process of tweaking is no more diffucult than installing windows
“So, someone is keeping creating new ones. Who’s going to create a cartoonish 3d model of a 2050’s computer frame or rocket in the future?”
As I told you, such types of jobs will be only available to professionals. No average modeller can make exactly what he was told to do when it comes to custom, unique characters from someone’s mind.
Web designers are going to vanish in the next 5-6 years also. There are all kinds of software to visualize these “coding”. Even now no one is going to hire a designer for an average website. All code samples are freely available and I managed to build a good site in sublime text in under 2 days just with help of code samples.
Next, there is wordpress with thousands of themes, paid and free. E-shops, forums, highest complexity, all under 70 dollars.
Website design is now a job only for super-professionals who design unique stuff for big companies like EA, etc. If 10 years ago I could do websites for shops and schools being a 15years old teenager because not everybody had computers and even lower amount of people had internet, and the amount of tutorials was even lower(I think it was zero), now it’s available for everyone.
Even 5 years go. It was still not very developed and one I could find customers, but even 10 years old kids now can create their owns sites
I understand what you saying, because when I was younger (10 years ago) I had the exact same thoughts and doubts.
I do agree with points 3 and 4, and with some remarks in 1 and 2.
But time will tell who is really right.
Despite the amount of 3D assets available, most of them are not suitable when you’re doing a project(people doing a bad job or it’s not quite what you want), for example most of the things on Turbosquid aren’t usable. And for any game or movie project you’d be working on unique designs as it is, which isn’t something you’ll find in an online store. The vast majority of games and movies require unique assets that will only be useful on that project.
Modeling tools are improving, but it’s going to be a very long time before photogrammetry can be used in an automated process, for example a scan of a person still needs to be cleaned up and things like hair don’t scan. Many other objects have trouble scanning, due to being reflective or too dark. You had posted a thread yourself about getting bad results with photogrammetry.